TUESDAY, March 4, 2008 — Expect to see legislation on high school dropouts, domestic violence, mental health reform and the state lottery pouring from Raleigh later this spring, when the North Carolina General Assembly convenes May 13 for its biannual "short session."

Thanks to limits on what legislators may consider in even years, when the state Constitution mandates a shorter session, policy analyst Ran Coble expects lawmakers to focus on recommendations from study commissions meeting since the last session closed.

Coble, executive director of the nonpartisan North Carolina Center for Policy Research, discussed key issues facing the state and gave his predictions for the coming session when he spoke Thursday to about 130 people attending the Committee of 100 winter luncheon.

Studies, budgets and pending bills

Along with any legislation dealing with the state budget and consideration of pending bills that passed one of the two chambers during the previous year, laws based on study commission findings are fair game during the short session. Those commissions include groups examining high school dropouts, domestic violence and transportation.

Coble anticipates significant action on high school dropouts and domestic violence, but not as much on transportation. Though transportation funding and improvement are in play for the short session, they're less likely to be debated in an election year, the analyst said, because toll roads, bridge repair and highway maintenance can be big-dollar, hot-button issues.

Lottery reform, a topic falling under the "state budget" provision, may emerge, too.

North Carolina's overall revenue in the first half of this fiscal year came in $140 million ahead of projections, but lawmakers may still search for additional cash — given the shaky national economy, 18 other states facing a budget deficit and lower-than-expected income from statewide gambling here. The lottery was expected to generate $425 million in revenue last year, Coble said, but brought in just $313 million.

As a result, he expects the legislature to pass bills increasing lottery payouts, advertising and the number of retailers selling tickets — all in an effort to attract more players and boost state income.

Other issues that could draw attention in the short session: mental health reform, thanks to rising costs and a recent Raleigh News and Observer series focusing attention on the concern, and the double-barreled issue of legislative ethics and campaign finance reform, thanks to continued scandals plaguing Jones Street.

But what's really important?

Whether the legislature tackles them this year or not, Coble believes several critical issues are facing North Carolinians, and what he calls "The New Economy" was at the top of his list.

"I like to think of the old economy being a three-legged stool," he explained, "with tobacco, textiles and furniture. And two legs are being sawed off."

The problem is that North Carolina's current tax structure is based on that old economy, assuming a strong manufacturing base, taxes generated from in-store sales and a strongly-progressive structure.

None of those assumptions holds any more. "A state's tax structure must match its economy," the analyst said. "And ours no longer does."

Punctuating his serious points with real-life examples, down-home stories and even a few one-liners now and then, Coble listed other issues that could affect families from Murphy to Manteo.

Finding some way to provide educational equity between rich and poor school districts is a challenge, he said, particularly when the richest district in Orange County has 12 times the money as the poorest in Swain County. Low funding limits some students' access to high-level math and science courses — essential for success in a technological economy — as well as slashing other opportunities in vocational studies and the arts.

Water is another looming problem, Coble said, with 120 systems in the Tar Heel State facing mandatory restrictions and 17 systems having less than 100 days' supply on hand. Water quality is a concern in some areas, with disputes over transferring water from one area to another plaguing others.

"Our water, in the next two decades," Coble predicted, "is what oil issues have been to our last two decades."

Our Destiny

Shifting demographics will change life in the Old North State, which has greater racial diversity, more elderly residents and more school-age children.

A growing elderly population increases the need for nurses. Coble said 9,000 more will be needed by 2015 — 18,000 more by 2020 — all at a time when many currently-practicing nurses are retiring.

The burgeoning number of youth, on the other hand, places a strain on the public schools. The state has about 86,000 teachers now, Coble said, and will need 10,000 more per year for the next decade. The problem: Just 4,000 teachers are produced annually by universities statewide, and not all of them remain in North Carolina after graduation.

"In many ways," Coble explained, "demographics is destiny."

April 29: Serving Hispanics and Latinos

Alex Lluch, director of Hispanic/Latino affairs for Gov. Mike Easley, will be the featured speaker on Tuesday, Apr. 29, when the Committee of 100 holds its spring luncheon at Chef Paul's Cafe and Catering in Sanford.

Though his presentation is still being developed, Lluch is expected to discuss how businesses, governmental agencies and nonprofit groups can serve Hipanics/Latinos more effectively — given differences in customs, social needs and economic patterns.

The discussion will include an extended Q&A session.